The solar industry is undergoing a dramatic shift, rapidly moving from Passivated Emitter and Rear Contact (PERC) technology to Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (TOPCon) technology.     The advantages of TOPCon are clear: higher efficiency, higher power generation and significantly lower levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) through reduced land, tracker and labor costs.   TOPCon technology improves the passivation path and minimizes electron recombination (or loss), thereby enhancing energy conversion. This advancement allows for ever-increasing efficiencies and the ability to install more components on land that allows limited space.   TOPCon also exhibits a bifacial power generation coefficient of 80% compared to PERC's 70%, thereby increasing the amount of power generated on the back of the module relative to the front. Finally, TOPCon has a better temperature coefficient than PERC, resulting in higher power generation in hot conditions.   Overall, TOPCon has a 1-2% advantage in power generation, depending on location, which can add millions of dollars in annual revenue to large solar farms.   Currently, TOPCon is more cost-effective than other n-type technologies. In contrast, the TOPCon ecosystem offers a wider range of equipment options and technology pathways, making converting production lines from PERC easier and more compatible, requiring only some additional equipment and layout space.   The warranty provisions of TOPCon and PERC have similar annual decay rates of approximately 0.4%. However, TOPCon has a lower first-year decay rate of 1%, compared to PERC’s 2%.   The transition to TOPCon is so fast that PERC will be a thing of the past in a few years.   According to the latest market intelligence from the Clean Energy Association (CEA), TOPCon is expected to account for half of global production capacity by the end of this year, and PERC capacity will drop below 25% and be completely phased out in 2028. While the U.S. market may lag slightly behind limited domestic supplies, TOPCon is gaining traction globally and manufacturers are ramping up production to meet surging demand.   As technology evolves rapidly, so does a learning curve. Any new production line will have a higher defect rate. Suppliers may also face delays in improving processes and failing to achieve promised efficiency and reliability goals.   PERC's widespread global adoption has led risk-averse end-device developers to avoid TOPCon for a while until more data becomes available. Likewise, some financiers may be cautiously waiting to see how TOPCon materializes. Still, they cannot delay it indefinitely, as the transition is already well underway.   The introduction of TOPCon adds a variable to the supply chain and EPC, making it more complex in the short term. Customers want to know how to navigate long-term supply agreements over the next few years.   Price remains a key factor in component sourcing strategies. As PERC components are phased out, manufacturers are slashing prices to make room for TOPCon. But PERC prices in the United States are not as low as in other regions, and the recent RFP resulted in a TOPCon price of $0.03 per watt.   Developers must carefully decide whether saving a few cents is worth sacrificing power generation, taking into account long-term profitability and the extended warranty offered by TOPCon.   While TOPCon is very close to being beneficial in almost all cases, it's not quite there yet. Developers need to evaluate whether using TOPCon or PERC is cost-effective on a project-by-project basis.   Additionally, component reliability and quality are critical, and third-party qualification testing is recommended to verify performance claims using real-time data and actual production statistics.   At CEA's work, we advise developers not to purchase products without seeing third-party qualification testing and verification. To ensure that TOPCon components meet the manufacturer's performance and reliability requirements, third-party audits, production monitoring and random testing are performed, along with accelerated testing in climate chambers that simulate decades of field use.   Customers considering multi-year supply agreements should prioritize suppliers with the capital and flexibility to increase TOPCon production as needed, as well as years of experience and R&D capabilities. In addition, suppliers with both PERC and TOPCon production lines have greater flexibility in purchasing strategies.   Additionally, developers must emphasize quality and reliability, as some manufacturers may cut corners to meet demand quickly.   The choice regarding contract duration is entirely client-specific and depends on their individual needs, risk tolerance and financiers. Some customers will only purchase from Tier 1 suppliers because they are confident of transitioning to new technology more quickly and are willing to pay a premium for this peace of mind.   However, there are others who may be willing to work with Tier 2 manufacturers to get price discounts and possibly access to the domestic content of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).   Only those large second-tier players that can differentiate themselves and demonstrate additional value by mitigating supply chain risks through UFLPA will be able to compete before the big players start to dominate again.   By prioritizing strong quality assurance programs, reliability and flexibility in procurement strategies, solar developers can transition from PERC to TOPCon with confidence.

The Australian government will launch a 6GW renewable energy tender next month under its expanded Capacity Investment Plan (CIS). It will be the largest single renewable energy tender in the country's history.     The tender, which will be held in late May, will include around 2.2GW of dedicated capacity for projects in New South Wales under its Reliable Renewable Energy Plan. South Australia will also guarantee at least 300MW of capacity.   The Albanese government announced the expansion of the CIS in November 2023, aiming to guarantee 32GW of renewable energy generation and storage capacity.   In this latest announcement, the office of Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the Albanese Government and the New South Wales Government would work together to advance the "CIS and NSW Roadmap to a Single Consolidated Tender Process”.   The statement also said there would be a 500MW capacity tender for projects in Western Australia, expected to open "mid-year", subject to negotiations and final agreement. The first CIS auction in Victoria and South Australia opened in December last year, seeking dispatchable renewable energy generation and storage capacity of up to 600MW/2,400MWh.   A technical breakdown of the capacity available in the tender was not disclosed, other than to say it would seek "variable renewable energy projects" - mainly solar and wind - "for use in the National Electricity Market (NEM)".   Bowen said: “The rain doesn't always come as frequently, but we always have access to water because we store it for emergencies – and the same goes for our energy plan with reliable renewable energy. ”   "Our plan is to provide the market with the certainty and confidence it needs at a time when we need energy."   Australia's large-scale solar market started to falter last year, with Clean Energy Council (CEC) data showing just six new large-scale projects achieved financial close in the first nine months of 2023. PV Tech Power analyzed the situation in its Q4 2023 report.   As well as supporting deployment, earlier this month the government announced a plan to support domestic solar and clean energy manufacturing - what the Australian Prime Minister called "a new competitive arena in international relations".

The U.S. government will announce $7 billion in grants for residential solar projects that will power more than 900,000 homes in low- and moderate-income communities in the United States.     President Joe Biden made the announcement on April 22 to celebrate Earth Day 2024.   The White House said Biden will announce $7 billion in grants through the Environmental Protection Agency's Solar for All grant competition, a key component of the Inflation Reduction Act's $27 billion greenhouse gas reduction fund.   Recipients of the grants will serve every U.S. state and territory by developing "long-term" solar projects to provide residential solar to approximately 1 million homes in low-income and disadvantaged communities.   The U.S. government estimates that the program will save more than $350 million in electricity bills annually, equivalent to $400 per household.   The plan will also be part of the U.S. government's goal to direct 40% of federal clean energy investment proceeds to disadvantaged communities.   Between 2012 and 2022, U.S. rooftop solar capacity increased tenfold, with small solar power generation growing rapidly from 5,959 GWh in 2012 to 61,281 GWh in 2022, driven by the rapid spread of home installations.   In 2022, residential solar systems will generate 39,510 GWh, accounting for 64% of the electricity generated by small solar installations in the United States, while commercial solar systems will generate a total of 17,724 GWh.   Although the growth in rooftop solar generation accounts for only 1.5% of all electricity consumption in the United States, at 2022 demand levels, rooftop solar generation could generate electricity equivalent to about 45% of all electricity sales nationwide.

According to the Institute of Renewable Energy (IEO), a Polish research organization, Poland's cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity has exceeded 17GW by the end of 2023.     As of the end of December 2023, Poland's cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity reached 17,057 MW, ranking first among all renewable energy sources. This is followed by wind power (9428MW) and hydropower (979MW).   Poland’s newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 4.6GW last year. IEO calculated this number based on another study released in May 2023. As of the end of 2022, Poland's cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity exceeded 12.4GW.   In recent years, Poland's installed photovoltaic capacity has continued to grow. According to IEO data, as of the end of the third quarter of 2023, the number of photovoltaic projects in Poland that have been approved for grid connection reached 18GW.   IEO said that as of the third quarter of 2023, a total of 6,929 projects have obtained grid connection permissions. Compared with the information at the end of the first quarter of 2023 in the previous database, the number of projects increased by 41% and the total power generation increased by 46%.   Recently, Polish transmission system operator Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne (PSE) announced a plan to invest 64 billion zlotys ($16 billion) in new transmission lines by 2034.   In its new draft development plan for 2025-2034, the Polish transmission system operator plans to add more than 4,800 kilometers of 400kV lines to upgrade the Polish power grid and add 45GW of photovoltaic capacity to the grid by 2034, of which large-scale ground-mounted photovoltaic is about is 20GW, and rooftop PV is about 25GW.   In its updated national energy and climate plan, Poland aims to have 29.3GW of installed PV capacity by 2030, 22GW more than the previous version of the national energy and climate plan submitted in 2019.

In 2023, Europe's installed energy storage capacity will exceed 10GW for the first time.     LCP Delta and the European Energy Storage Association released the eighth European Energy Storage Market Monitor last week. The report shows that throughout last year, Europe (including EU and non-EU countries) installed a total of approximately 10.1GW in household, large-scale ground projects and industrial and commercial markets.   This is more than double the European record of 4.5GW in 2022, and is far higher than LCP Delta’s expectation of 6GW in 2023 in the seventh "European Energy Storage Market Monitor Report" released this time last year. LCP Delta said the “impressive results” were driven by a combination of support programs and improving energy storage market conditions.   We mentioned in the recent ESN Premium Friday Briefing that one of the important conclusions is the gap between the grid side (large ground projects) and the user side (residential and industrial and commercial projects). The grid-side installed capacity completed in 2023 will be approximately 2.7GW, and the user-side installed capacity will be approximately 7.3GW.

At the European Large-scale Solar Energy Conference held in Lisbon recently, a speaker said that the policy environment for solar photovoltaics in Europe needs to balance the interests of developers and other industry parties.     The second panel of the conference was themed "Policy, legislation and progress towards the 2023 targets in Europe", with speakers discussing the impact of Brussels policies on the downstream and manufacturing sectors of the European solar industry.   Discussions surrounding the localization of European solar manufacturing (or lack thereof) have been heating up recently. In announcing as-yet unspecified financial support for the industry, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson cited the "very fragile situation" of EU manufacturers.   Driven by the European Solar Photovoltaic Industry Alliance (ESIA), the EU currently aims to achieve 30GW of solar photovoltaic capacity across the entire value chain by 2025.   Discussions surrounding the localization of European solar manufacturing (or lack thereof) have been heating up recently. In announcing as-yet unspecified financial support for the industry, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson cited the "very fragile situation" of EU manufacturers.   Driven by the European Solar Photovoltaic Industry Alliance (ESIA), the EU currently aims to achieve 30GW of solar photovoltaic capacity across the entire value chain by 2025.